Root Cause Analysis

Let’s talk about solving problems.

Can you try thinking of a situation where, having identified a problem, you thought of a solution for it, implemented it and then the problem didn’t really go away? You would then go back to trying to figure out what was wrong, coming up with other possible solutions and getting there eventually, after a bumpy ride, tired, and maybe thinking: this shouldn’t have been that difficult? Say, a computer refusing to do what you’ve asked not because it’s broken (as you’ve initially thought - and pursued a solution for), but because you’re doing it wrong.

Guilty as charged

Here are a few real-life examples of that pattern. 

After having new windows put in our house, we kept finding issues here and there, resulting in the installers being called back to fix them under warranty. One hot summer day, I tried to open all the windows in the bedroom fully (they have these hinges that should open all the way, not just to 90 degrees). But one of the windows kept bouncing back, like there was some sort of spring inside the frame. I got fed up with it very quickly and fired an angry email to the installers, with a video of the whole thing attached. They deemed the issue ‘unusual’ and booked a visit. I’ll never forget the ‘you idiot’ look on that guy’s face, whilst showing me how a telephone cable which I can see from my bed was blocking the window from opening fully.

Some time ago, I realised I put on some weight. Having analysed my day-to-day, I asserted that my exercise levels hadn’t changed and my meal portions had not increased so the reason must be medical. I then went on convincing the GP that this must be a hormonal imbalance, because all other tests ruled out any issues. Getting hormonal treatment did nothing whatsoever and I kept putting on weight, until I clocked that for the past year or so, I’d been baking banana bread at least once a week and dutifully demolishing half of it. A strict diet, which I maintain to this day, as if by magic, helped reduce the weight back to normal.

Can you see where I’m headed here? Incorrectly identified cause of the problem can, and most likely will, lead to insufficient solutions. In depth, root cause analysis followed by careful crafting of the solution helps avoid the hassle, optimise cost and effort.

First step: define the problem

In business analysis, a concise, accurate problem statement is the guiding star for root cause investigations and solutions design. It should focus on what you’re trying to solve, not how to solve it - options for that will come in time.

The problem I would like to focus on here can be expressed in a simple (but mighty) statement: commuting in my local area fills me with dread. To give you a bit more detail: I live in the South-West, on the border of England and Wales, near a town called Chepstow. In the rush hour, if I’m unlucky, a 1 mile car journey to town can take me 40 minutes, not to mention any journeys outside the local area. Traveling around has never been particularly smooth, but several months ago, one small bridge on the river Wye sustained a serious fault and has been closed since. This brought on terrifying volumes of chaos. Does this mean fixing the bridge would resolve the problem?

The 5 (or so) Why-s

Assuming that the small bridge is to blame for all traffic would be unreasonable - the recent issue simply made things especially painful, and ignited the need for a quick fix (repair the bridge) to restore the previous, predictable, yet still congested reality. We naturally like quick fixes, but if tackling traffic was a matter of one, would there be any persistent traffic issues? This is where a root cause analysis comes to play. But mind it: it has to be thorough and honest. If, at the end of it, you find out that you were causing the problem (banana bread case), so be it.

Business studies gave us an iterative problem-solving technique called ‘The 5 Why-s’. Its origins, as with many other clever things in business, are with the Toyota Production System. In simple terms, having defined a problem, you’re supposed to ask ‘why is that’ five times, to land on the root cause. I would advise caution in applying it literally - it doesn’t always need to be five, and there is not always only one root cause of the problem (I’ve found this excellent article on why caution is recommended, if you’d like to explore). The exercise, however, opens your mind to deeper consideration of the true nature of the issue, which, if applied mindfully, will lead you to the right conclusions.

My Why

So why is commuting in my local area such an ordeal? There seem to be two main paths to explore:

1. Because there are too many cars on roads and

2. Because the road infrastructure wasn’t designed sustainably

Both of them seem plausible. Let’s explore the infrastructure trait first.

Chepstow is a transit town, linking Bristol and surrounding areas with South Wales and Gloucestershire. Fortunately for Chepstow, the Prince of Wales (M4) bridge serves as a bypass for a large share of the South Wales traffic but certainly not all of it. For Gloucestershire traffic on the left side of the Severn Estuary, there is no choice but to squeeze through Chepstow via one-lane roads, the main one being the A48 to Gloucester. The Highbeech roundabout on top of Chepstow, linking four main roads in the area, is subject to constant traffic jams, sending ripples in all directions and causing constant delays and frustrations to travelers. How can the road situation be improved then?

For years (probably since the first Severn Bridge was opened in 1966), there has been talks of creating the elusive Chepstow Bypass. It would require an astonishing budget and a new road bridge over the Wye Estuary, plus a major development of linking roads, which are currently nothing more than country lanes. If ever delivered, it would certainly relieve Chepstow town from the Gloucestershire transit traffic, potentially long-term. It’s unclear, though, how it would impact the local community and the areas outside Chepstow (a problem shifted elsewhere is not a problem solved). Given that it’s been discussed for decades and considering the crazy budget required and the sheer ambition of the project, one must think if there may be some other paths to consider.

Maybe, then, the root cause is the fact that the area sits on two rivers and there aren't enough places to cross them (still dwelling on the unsustainable road infrastructure design). An idea has been raised to consider building a third Severn crossing, where an old railway bridge from Lydney to Sharpness used to be. The solution would certainly make many people’s lives easier. Residents of Lydney would have a new, convenient way home from Bristol side. Residents of Chepstow would happily wave goodbye to the Lydney traffic. 

Both this and the Chepstow Bypass solution could make a lot of good in the short to mid-term. However, I have a suspicion that long-term, the improved infrastructure situation would bring a lot more housing into the area, causing an influx of new residents - and their cars. From my own experience, living in rural Gloucestershire requires one car per adult in the household. I can foresee the future traffic situation worsening gradually, until, maybe in 10-15 years, Chepstow and surrounding areas would get overwhelmed again.

Which makes me think, the fact that there are so many cars on roads is the issue. And why is that so? Because public transport in the area is shocking or simply non-existent, forcing people to drive everywhere (and keep a spare car in case the main one is unavailable). The same applies to cycle paths (has anyone ever seen one?) and school transport. I can see the outskirts of Bristol from my window, yet, to get to Bristol without a car, I would need to walk some time to Chepstow train station, take a train to Severn Tunnel Junction or Newport, and only from there would I be able to catch my next train to the final destination. Satnav tells me it would take me 1 hour and 40 minutes. A person with limited mobility cannot even easily get to Chepstow from our village because there are 44 wonky steps to scale on route. They can wait for the bus that comes 4 times a day.

And now what?

And now I should announce: to properly resolve the issue, we need a network of fast, affordable public transport and a direct train link between Chepstow and Bristol. An extra bridge on the Severn plus an additional crossing on the Wye would also be a good idea. What do you reckon, how much would all that cost? Sadly, no council is going to splurge the required fortune on the entire scope, it’s simply too much to ask. One must conclude that better, more forward thinking urban planning could have prevented this, at least to an extent. But here we are, living the consequences of not enough forward thinking. 

Incremental improvement is the only way forward here and with persistence, the situation can be improved. Enhancements to public transport can happen - I dare think - faster and cheaper, than building a new bridge. Extra measures could help, my flagship example being: allowing people to work from home full time, if it’s practical (my case). Dragging people to offices twice a week for the sake of it increases traffic on roads and the benefit (what benefit exactly?) can’t really justify it. Sustainable housing development, taking into account the impact of each additional vehicle on the local infrastructure, would also be advised.

I hope that this story shines some light on the importance of root cause analysis. Jumping to conclusions can be costly and ineffective in the long term. Spending time to analyse the real nature of the problem is likely to uncover layers invisible to the naked eye. Tackling the issue at its root is worth the money and effort.